The Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect in Montpelier
2023-01-25
Dear friend,
Happy Wednesday! Let's take a moment this morning for gratitude for our road crews who plowed out this storm even with downed trees and power lines all over. Keep in mind that when they went home to catch a few Z's, power was out for them, like the rest of us. And a huge thank you to our lineworkers, also going 24/7 to get our lights back on.
What's going on in Montpelier in Week 4?
As one of your elected representatives, I try to report back as often as I can.
I'm not the only one reporting from the Statehouse, of course. Besides other legislators, there are professionals doing this.
I'm referring to the press, and they have an advantage on me—time. I'm sitting down to write this at 6 a.m. because it's the only time of day that's not scheduled.
My official duties start today with a Corrections & Institutions hearing at 8:30 a.m. We will wrap up with a House session that starts at 3 p.m. and goes as long as it needs. From there I have scheduled meetings with caucuses, constituent groups, and strategy sessions with fellow lawmakers that can go well into the evening.
Last Wednesday our committee was on the road all day checking out state spending on projects like the new State Police barracks in Williston:
Rep. Roberts and Colonel Matthew Birmingham, Director of the Vermont State Police
To stay in touch with everything going on here, there's no better place than the official source, the Legislature home page.
Another day, I'll go over all the info you can glean there. Today, I want to talk about the media and how I read it.
The three outlets that have reporters "in the building" most often are WCAX, VT Digger, and Vermont Public Radio.
Those are the main places to turn to read daily reporting on key actions. If there's any drama, they'll be all over it. So will the Vermont Daily Chronicle (the Fox News of Vermont), and the more MSNBC-like Seven Days.
Honorable mention goes to our Windham County media—the Reformer, Deerfield Valley News, and the Commons. I love our local media and I subscribe to them all. However, those folks are seldom here and don't cover daily developments in detail.
(Notice I did not mention social media as a news source. What your friend said about an article on Facebook is free speech, and is multiple steps removed from what's going on.)
I recommend that informed voters pick a couple outlets to keep an eye on. If they're reporting on something you haven't heard from me on, don't hesitate to ask. For example, there's coverage that I can't keep up with on Paid Family Medical Leave (just introduced by Rep. Kornheiser and 102 Reps including myself), and the extension of COVID-era Open Meeting Law (passed by both chambers and waiting on the Governor).
I also recommend taking a hint from your local highway department and take all the media with a healthy supply of salt.
Imagine that every day you did your job all day, whatever it is. Then in your downtime you turn on the news and watch a journalist report on it. Someone who wasn't there working at your side, but who was watching from the sidelines.
How often would they get the details right, or even the main idea?
Anytime I read anything in the news I like to remember the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect.
Author Michael Crichton coined this effect in honor of physicist Murray Gell-Mann. Crichton explains it this way:
You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray [Gell-Mann]’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.
I remember the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect every day here. Even articles that sound true can be filled with errors, and I wouldn't know the difference in most cases unless I was in the room.
***
There's one more thing about Gell-Mann that makes me chuckle.
Why didn't Michael Crichton name this idea for himself?
"I refer to it by this name because I once discussed it with Murray Gell-Mann," he said. "By dropping a famous name I imply greater importance to myself, and to the effect, than it would otherwise have."
With this wink, Crichton also illustrates how much a name matters to how we think about something. Politicians understand this. For example, you might feel differently about an "Tax on generational wealth" than you do about a "Death tax."
As an elected leader, I don't pretend to be above this. I embrace it as part of the job.
I want the Legislature to pass and the Governor to sign policies that get the best outcome for Vermonters. If you ask me where I stand on abortion, I will talk how I support women having unfettered access to medical care. I'll talk about safe surgical procedures that save lives such as pregnancy termination. Rather than focusing on a specific medical procedure, I'll talk about your body, your choice.
Sometimes political discourse becomes so biased and overheated that it loses touch with reality. But words are never the thing itself. Words always influence the conversation in a certain direction.
Keep that, and the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect in mind when you read about Montpelier.